Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The typical count of per-day killings each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent government figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that murder data may not signal better countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts cautioned that using murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it may mask days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.