Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.